By Saima Raza
It has been suggested the effects of climate change (namely natural disasters, sea-level rise, and increasing resource scarcity) will lead to loss of livelihood, economic decline, and increased insecurity either directly or through forced migration. Interacting with poor governance and societal inequalities, these factors may promote political and economic volatility, social fragmentation, migration, and unfortunate responses from governments in Africa. The scarcity (or neo-malthusian) model of conflict assumes that if climate change results in a reduction in essential resources for livelihood, such as food or water, those affected by the increasing scarcity may start fighting over the remaining resources. Alternatively, people may be forced to leave the area, and create new scarcities when they encroach on the territory of other people who may also be resource-constrained. Homer-Dixon (1991) controversially claimed we were on the threshold of an era in which armed conflicts would arise due to environmental alterations and Africa has widely been cited as a potential hotbed for such confrontations.